Optimism bias, strategic misinterpretation and reference class forecasting

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Major Projects throughout the world face high overruns and potential overestimation on initial budgets.  
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Multi-National corporations completing large-scale projects throughout the world face high overruns and potential overestimation on initial budgets. This can be a result of a number of factors.
  
  
  
 
== Background Information on Flyrbergs danish theory ==
 
== Background Information on Flyrbergs danish theory ==
 
flyberg
 
 
_TOC_
 
 
link
 
nobel
 
all 3
 
business practise
 
limitations
 
alternatives
 
conclusion
 
  
 
== Optimisim Bias ==
 
== Optimisim Bias ==
  
 
== Strategic Misinterpretation ==
 
== Strategic Misinterpretation ==
 
  
 
== Reference Class Forecasting ==
 
== Reference Class Forecasting ==
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== Conclusion ==
 
== Conclusion ==
  
 
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== References ==
 
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[http://peakconsulting.dk/Portals/0/media/PMO-forum/23-nov-2011/Flyvbjerg_2008_CurbingOptimismBiasAndStrategicMisrepresentationInPlanningReferenceClassForecastingInPractice.pdf]
 
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pmi view on danish nobel professor with theory on optimism bias
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20 page repyrt on limitations and examples[http://peakconsulting.dk/Portals/0/media/PMO-forum/23-nov-2011/Flyvbjerg_2008_CurbingOptimismBiasAndStrategicMisrepresentationInPlanningReferenceClassForecastingInPractice.pdf]
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Revision as of 17:05, 23 February 2018

Multi-National corporations completing large-scale projects throughout the world face high overruns and potential overestimation on initial budgets. This can be a result of a number of factors.


Contents

Background Information on Flyrbergs danish theory

Optimisim Bias

Strategic Misinterpretation

Reference Class Forecasting

Business Practise

Limitations

Alternatives

Conclusion

References

[1]

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